Kusukela kulo nyaka, ngenxa yobhubhane oluphindaphindayo, ukwelula kwezingxabano zezwe, ukushoda kwamandla, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu, ukuqina kwenqubomgomo yezimali kanye nezinye izici eziningi eziyinkimbinkimbi kuyaqhubeka nomthelela ekuweni komnotho womhlaba kancane kancane, ingcindezi yohlangothi lwesidingo ibaluleke kakhulu, ingozi yokwehla komnotho ikhuphuke kakhulu.
Ekupheleni kwekota yesithathu, imboni yokukhiqiza yomhlaba wonke yaphenduka ukuncipha, i-JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) kaSepthemba engu-49.8, okokuqala kusukela ngoJulayi 2020 yehla ngaphansi komugqa weRongkuk, lapho inkomba yama-oda amasha ingu-47.7 kuphela, ukuzethemba kwebhizinisi kwehle kwaba phansi okusha ezinyangeni ezingu-28.
I-OECD Consumer Consumer Consumer Index ihlale ku-96.5 kusukela ngoJulayi, endaweni yokuncishiswa kwesisindo izinyanga eziyi-14 zilandelana.
Inkomba ye-barometer yokuhweba ngezimpahla emhlabeni wonke ihlale ezingeni lokulinganisa elingu-100 kwikota yesithathu, kodwa njengoba kulinganiswe yiNetherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), ngaphandle kwezici zamanani, amanani okuhweba emhlabeni wonke ehle ngo-0.9% ngoJulayi futhi akhuphuke ngo-0.7% kuphela ngo-Agasti kusukela onyakeni odlule.
Ithonywe ukuqina koketshezi kanye nokulindelwe kokwehla komnotho, amanani entengo yomhlaba wonke ehla kancane kancane ngemva kuka-Agasti, kodwa izinga lentengo lilonke lisesezingeni eliphezulu, kanti i-IMF Energy Price Index isalokhu ikhuphuke ngo-55.1% unyaka nonyaka ngoSepthemba.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali akukalawulwa ngokugcwele, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lase-US likhuphuke ngoJuni ngenxa yezinto ezifana nokunciphisa ukukhula kwamaholo futhi lehla kancane kancane, kodwa izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ngo-Okthoba lisaphezulu njengo-7.7%, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lase-eurozone lingu-10.7%, ingxenye yezinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lamazwe angamalungu e-OECD lifinyelele ngaphezu kuka-10%.
Umnotho omkhulu waseShayina wamelana nomthelela wobhubhane kanye nesimo sangaphandle siyinkimbinkimbi futhi sinzima, njengomthelela wezinto eziningi ezingaphezu kokulindelekile, imizamo yokulungisa ukulahlekelwa. Njengoba iphakheji yezinqubomgomo zokuzinzisa umnotho kazwelonke kanye nezinyathelo zenqubomgomo ezilandelanayo ziqala ukusebenza, ukuvuselelwa komnotho omkhulu kanye nomfutho wentuthuko ungcono kunekota yesibili, ikakhulukazi imakethe yokukhiqiza kanye nesidingo sasekhaya iyaqhubeka nokufudumala, ikhombisa ukuqina okuhle kwentuthuko.
Ezigabeni ezintathu zokuqala, i-GDP yaseShayina ikhule ngo-3% unyaka nonyaka, izinga lokukhula ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 liphezulu kunengxenye yokuqala yonyaka; ukuthengiswa okuphelele kwezimpahla ezithengiswayo, inani elengeziwe lezimboni lamabhizinisi elingaphezu kuka-0.7% no-3.9% unyaka nonyaka, izinga lokukhula ngamaphesenti angu-1.4 no-0.5 liphezulu kunengxenye yokuqala yonyaka, ngokulandelana.
Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali ngokuyisisekelo kufinyelele ukukhula okuzinzile, izingxenye ezintathu zokuqala zekota zenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eShayina (ngamadola aseMelika) kanye nokuqedwa kokutshalwa kwezimali kwempahla engaguquki (ngaphandle kwabalimi) kukhule ngo-12.5% kanye no-5.9% unyaka nonyaka ngokulandelana, okwenza umnikelo omuhle ekuzinzisweni kwe-macroeconomic macro.
Nakuba umfutho wokululama komnotho we-macroeconomic waseShayina, kodwa ukukhula kwenzuzo yebhizinisi lezimboni akukakabi kuhle, ukuchuma kokukhiqiza ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokuwa, isisekelo sokululama sisazoqina kakhulu.
Emakota amathathu okuqala, ukuhlinzekwa kwezimboni zezindwangu kanye nokucindezela kwesidingo kuzo zombili izinhlangothi zesitaki, izinkomba zokusebenza eziyinhloko zehlise izinga lokukhula. Ngemva kokungena esizini yokuthengisa ephezulu ngoSepthemba, ama-oda emakethe akhuphukile, ezinye izingxenye zezinga lokuqala kweketanga lemboni zikhuphukile, kodwa umkhuba wokusebenza kwemboni jikelele awukabonakali izimpawu ezisobala zokwehla, imizamo yokuthuthukisa nokukhombisa ukuthuthukiswa kokuqina, ukuvimbela okusebenzayo kanye nokuxazululwa kwezinselelo zezingozi kuseyinto ebalulekile embonini.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Novemba-26-2022
